PASS closing odds 9,504
PASS locked pre-kickoff 72/72
26 up / 31 down
CLV Direction
NEXT KICKOFF
Qatar vs Switzerland
Jun 13 19:00 UTC in 8h 51m
v2 CHANGE: Picks are now the model's TOP PROBABILITY side, not EV-maximizing.
Qatar vs Switzerland now correctly shows AWAY (57%). Mexico vs South Africa now correctly shows HOME (66%).
CLV recalculated for new pick sides. The EV formula that caused 2 losses has been removed.
UPDATE BEFORE KICKOFF
Run this to refresh odds, CLV, and settlement data.
cd football_probability_lab && python tools/world_cup_1x2_rca.py && python tools/world_cup_forward_evidence_tracker.py && python tools/world_cup_settlement_runner.py && python tools/_build_simple_wc_dashboard.py
Asian Handicap — Top 10 Safest Bets (Underdog +1.5, HFA-neutral)
Win if team wins, draws, or loses by exactly 1 goal. Draw% = model's draw probability.
| # | Match | Bet | Cover | Draw% |
|---|
| 1 | Sweden vs Tunisia | Tunisia +1.5 | 92.4% | 49.7% |
| 2 | Egypt vs Iran | Iran +1.5 | 92.0% | 39.2% |
| 3 | Uruguay vs Spain | Uruguay +1.5 | 89.8% | 38.9% |
| 4 | Colombia vs Portugal | Colombia +1.5 | 89.8% | 38.9% |
| 5 | Norway vs Senegal | Senegal +1.5 | 89.4% | 36.9% |
| 6 | Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabia +1.5 | 87.3% | 30.1% |
| 7 | Canada vs Qatar | Qatar +1.5 | 86.8% | 36.5% |
| 8 | Mexico vs South Korea | Mexico +1.5 | 86.3% | 32.4% |
| 9 | Congo DR vs Uzbekistan | Congo DR +1.5 | 86.3% | 33.3% |
| 10 | Belgium vs Egypt | Egypt +1.5 | 86.1% | 30.5% |
Asian Handicap — Top 5 Underdog +1.0
Win if team wins or draws. Push (refund) if loses by exactly 1.
| # | Match | Bet | Win+Push | Win / Push |
|---|
| 1 | Sweden vs Tunisia | Tunisia +1.0 | 92.4% | 68.2% / 24.2% |
| 2 | Egypt vs Iran | Iran +1.0 | 92.0% | 71.1% / 20.9% |
| 3 | Uruguay vs Spain | Uruguay +1.0 | 89.8% | 66.1% / 23.7% |
| 4 | Colombia vs Portugal | Colombia +1.0 | 89.8% | 66.1% / 23.7% |
| 5 | Norway vs Senegal | Senegal +1.0 | 89.4% | 66.6% / 22.8% |
Predictions + Market Movement
| Kickoff | Match | Pick | Prob | Locked | Latest | CLV | Result | Hit? | |
|---|
| 2026-06-13T19:00 | Qatar vs Switzerland | AWAY | 56.8% | 1.24 | 1.26 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-13T22:00 | Brazil vs Morocco | HOME | 48.8% | 1.70 | 1.75 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-14T01:00 | Haiti vs Scotland | AWAY | 63.2% | 1.54 | 1.62 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-14T04:00 | Australia vs Türkiye | AWAY | 53.5% | 1.80 | 1.79 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-14T17:00 | Germany vs Curaçao | HOME | 92.2% | 1.05 | 1.05 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-14T20:00 | Netherlands vs Japan | HOME | 45.7% | 2.05 | 2.06 | ➖ -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-14T23:00 | Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | AWAY | 41.7% | 2.46 | 2.47 | ➖ -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-15T02:00 | Sweden vs Tunisia | DRAW | 48.6% | 3.52 | 3.60 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-15T16:00 | Spain vs Cape Verde Islands | HOME | 86.9% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-15T19:00 | Belgium vs Egypt | HOME | 39.4% | 1.71 | 1.70 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-15T22:00 | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | AWAY | 44.6% | 1.51 | 1.50 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-16T01:00 | Iran vs New Zealand | HOME | 46.6% | 1.95 | 1.91 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-16T19:00 | France vs Senegal | HOME | 47.8% | 1.49 | 1.50 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-16T22:00 | Iraq vs Norway | AWAY | 69.1% | 1.22 | 1.23 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-17T01:00 | Argentina vs Algeria | HOME | 48.7% | 1.43 | 1.42 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-17T04:00 | Austria vs Jordan | HOME | 51.6% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-17T17:00 | Portugal vs Congo DR | HOME | 54.4% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-17T20:00 | England vs Croatia | HOME | 46.3% | 1.78 | 1.77 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-17T23:00 | Ghana vs Panama | AWAY | 50.3% | 3.85 | 3.65 | 📈 +0.1% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-18T02:00 | Uzbekistan vs Colombia | AWAY | 66.6% | 1.44 | 1.42 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-18T16:00 | Czech Republic vs South Africa | HOME | 48.2% | 2.00 | 2.00 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-18T19:00 | Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | HOME | 58.1% | 1.65 | 1.62 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-18T22:00 | Canada vs Qatar | HOME | 41.8% | 1.33 | 1.32 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-19T01:00 | Mexico vs South Korea | AWAY | 34.3% | 4.80 | 4.60 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-19T19:00 | USA vs Australia | HOME | 44.2% | 1.80 | 1.77 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-19T22:00 | Scotland vs Morocco | AWAY | 44.8% | 2.04 | 2.08 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-20T00:30 | Brazil vs Haiti | HOME | 88.2% | 1.09 | 1.09 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-20T03:00 | Türkiye vs Paraguay | HOME | 42.3% | 2.28 | 2.22 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-20T17:00 | Netherlands vs Sweden | HOME | 55.5% | 1.66 | 1.66 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-20T20:00 | Germany vs Ivory Coast | HOME | 55.7% | 1.58 | 1.58 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-21T00:00 | Ecuador vs Curaçao | HOME | 79.0% | 1.21 | 1.21 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-21T04:00 | Tunisia vs Japan | AWAY | 41.0% | 1.80 | 1.77 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-21T16:00 | Spain vs Saudi Arabia | HOME | 66.6% | 1.13 | 1.13 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-21T19:00 | Belgium vs Iran | HOME | 44.7% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-21T22:00 | Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands | HOME | 65.4% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-22T01:00 | New Zealand vs Egypt | AWAY | 53.0% | 1.75 | 1.79 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-22T17:00 | Argentina vs Austria | HOME | 46.4% | 1.68 | 1.69 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-22T21:00 | France vs Iraq | HOME | 68.5% | 1.14 | 1.14 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-23T00:00 | Norway vs Senegal | DRAW | 35.8% | 3.50 | 3.55 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-23T03:00 | Jordan vs Algeria | AWAY | 51.2% | 1.57 | 1.57 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-23T17:00 | Portugal vs Uzbekistan | HOME | 55.9% | 1.27 | 1.26 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-23T20:00 | England vs Ghana | HOME | 54.1% | 1.34 | 1.35 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-23T23:00 | Panama vs Croatia | AWAY | 69.8% | 1.52 | 1.59 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-24T02:00 | Colombia vs Congo DR | HOME | 53.8% | 1.50 | 1.50 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-24T19:00 | Switzerland vs Canada | AWAY | 43.9% | 3.80 | 3.62 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-24T19:00 | Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar | HOME | 60.7% | 1.58 | 1.69 | 📉 -0.1% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-24T22:00 | Morocco vs Haiti | HOME | 71.2% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-24T22:00 | Scotland vs Brazil | AWAY | 51.9% | 1.50 | 1.47 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-25T01:00 | Czech Republic vs Mexico | AWAY | 45.7% | 1.87 | 1.89 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-25T01:00 | South Africa vs South Korea | AWAY | 47.6% | 2.08 | 1.97 | 📈 +0.1% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-25T20:00 | Ecuador vs Germany | AWAY | 54.5% | 1.72 | 1.80 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-25T20:00 | Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | AWAY | 76.8% | 1.25 | 1.23 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-25T23:00 | Japan vs Sweden | HOME | 43.7% | 2.12 | 2.17 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-25T23:00 | Tunisia vs Netherlands | AWAY | 57.2% | 1.53 | 1.54 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-26T02:00 | Türkiye vs USA | AWAY | 37.3% | 2.57 | 2.59 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-26T02:00 | Paraguay vs Australia | AWAY | 43.3% | 3.50 | 3.70 | 📉 -0.1% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-26T19:00 | Senegal vs Iraq | HOME | 53.3% | 1.50 | 1.46 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-26T19:00 | Norway vs France | AWAY | 51.3% | 1.83 | 1.87 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T00:00 | Uruguay vs Spain | DRAW | 37.9% | 3.99 | 4.01 | ➖ -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T00:00 | Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia | HOME | 36.2% | 2.67 | 2.55 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T03:00 | Egypt vs Iran | DRAW | 38.1% | 3.10 | 3.12 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T03:00 | New Zealand vs Belgium | AWAY | 48.9% | 1.31 | 1.31 | ➖ +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T21:00 | Croatia vs Ghana | HOME | 42.4% | 1.68 | 1.66 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T21:00 | Panama vs England | AWAY | 78.2% | 1.32 | 1.30 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T23:30 | Colombia vs Portugal | DRAW | 37.9% | 3.40 | 3.38 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-27T23:30 | Congo DR vs Uzbekistan | AWAY | 34.5% | 3.20 | 3.25 | 📉 -0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-28T02:00 | Algeria vs Austria | AWAY | 40.9% | 2.31 | 2.24 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-28T02:00 | Jordan vs Argentina | AWAY | 53.8% | 1.22 | 1.21 | 📈 +0.0% | pending | — | |
| 2026-06-11T19:00 | Mexico vs South Africa | HOME | 66.4% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 📉 -0.0% | HOME | ✅ YES | SETTLED |
| 2026-06-12T02:00 | South Korea vs Czech Republic | DRAW | 33.8% | 3.20 | 3.20 | ➖ +0.0% | HOME | ❌ NO | SETTLED |
| 2026-06-12T19:00 | Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | HOME | 52.5% | 1.85 | 1.91 | 📉 -0.0% | DRAW | ❌ NO | SETTLED |
| 2026-06-13T01:00 | USA vs Paraguay | HOME | 56.0% | 2.04 | 2.16 | 📉 -0.1% | HOME | ✅ YES | SETTLED |